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Investors warn of ‘disconnect’ as markets price in early Fed rate cut

Some traders fear markets underestimate US central bank’s determination to stamp out inflation

Some investors are warning of a mismatch between market expectations and the Federal Reserve’s stated commitment to stamping out inflation as traders stand by their wagers on interest rate cuts next year.

Traders in the futures market are betting the central bank’s main interest rate will be cut to 3.3 per cent by the end of next year after peaking at 3.7 per cent in March 2023. That implies the Fed will have to cut rates by the second half of next year.

However, some investors argue that the market is misjudging the Fed, which has repeatedly said it is intent on tackling inflation even if tighter monetary policy results in higher unemployment and slower economic growth.

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