Autumn has set in and investors are looking back at a period of summer exuberance in markets through a notably more sober lens.
The focus is the curious moment in July when some fund managers abruptly convinced themselves, after a dreadful start to the year, that the US Federal Reserve would decide to be merciful. Stocks shot higher over hopes it might hold fire on some of the more aggressive options for taming inflation.
It was no fleeting fad. At the extreme, from mid-July to mid-August, the S&P 500 benchmark index of US-listed stocks gained about 16 per cent. The MSCI World index jumped by a similar degree. But anyone who timed this summer respite perfectly is in a minority. Now, investors are hunkering down for a grim winter after the Fed made it very clear it did not intend to budge.