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From Fed pivot to Fed pause

Taking the US central bank seriously, if not literally

Good morning. On a day when Donald Trump was sued for fraud and Vladimir Putin called up extra troops, all anyone in finance could talk about was the Federal Reserve. We join in, below. Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com.

The Fed

The Fed’s summary of economic projections (SEP) for September looked very different from the last one, released three months ago. At a high level of abstraction, the change is not surprising. The new SEP just put into words the bluntly and emphatically hawkish message from chair Jay Powell in, for example, his Jackson Hole speech a month ago. But words leave more room for interpretation, and therefore misunderstanding, than numbers do.   

There were three particularly big changes:

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