Can he? Would he? Will he? Western capitals are abuzz with alarm over Russian president Vladimir Putin’s repeated nuclear threats. Joe Biden, the US president, invoked a possible “Armageddon” at a Democratic party fundraising event. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, explained to a primetime television audience how Paris would react to a Russian nuclear attack “on Ukraine or in the region” — not with a nuclear counterstroke, it was said.
In Berlin, senior officials mutter darkly and off the record about various scenarios. On Monday, the head of Germany’s national intelligence agency warned in parliament that Moscow might use “substrategic nuclear weapons”.
Putin has a tendency to double down when on the defensive — which he is now, both on the battlefield in Ukraine and against a churning undertow of criticism at home. So there can be no question that responsible western leaders must plan for that ghastly eventuality.