Some say the world will end in fire. Others in ice. But from looking at demographic trends in the developed world, I hold with those who favour stairlifts. Or, as Tesla chief Elon Musk puts it, “civilisation will indeed die with a whimper in adult diapers”.
Richer states have ageing populations and lower birth rates. That isn’t all bad news: older societies tend to have lower levels of violence and political instability than younger ones. But they also have lower economic growth rates, and are not always good global citizens. The UK, for example, produces fewer doctors than it needs per head of population. Skilled professions like medicine will always be geographically mobile, but when meeting your own healthcare needs are predicated on poaching staff from poorer nations, it’s hard to claim you are a responsible or compassionate nation.
More importantly, we should be preoccupied by the cause of the rich world’s falling fertility rates because we should assume it represents the future of our planet if, as we hope, the whole world continues to become wealthier, healthier and better educated.