ASIAN CAPITAL FLIGHT
亚洲资本出逃


LEX专栏:随着manbetx app苹果 资本撤离亚洲地区,一些亚洲manbetx20客户端下载 体受到冲击,其中印度和韩国尤为明显。尽管货币疲软且通胀压力仍存,但两国降息的可能性越来越大。

This is a different problem from that of the more developed world, where money is jammed up within the system rather than jumping continents. Both, however, bring a cost. Capital flight and central bank intervention has depleted foreign exchange reserves in Asia, excluding Japan and China, by $42bn over the past three months, according to Royal Bank of Scotland. Korea, which has stepped in repeatedly to shore up the won, has spent an estimated $40bn over the past two months in the spot and forward FX markets. That may not be huge in the context of its $240bn of foreign exchange reserves, but whittling back the dollar kitty escalates concerns about Korea's $175bn of short-term liabilities. Rationally, these fears are probably overdone – a fair bit of those liabilities represent trades by onshore foreign banks, and are hedged – but rational behaviour has long since been abandoned.

这与较为发达国家的问题不同。发达国家的资金“卡”在了系统内部,而不是在不同大陆间转移。不过,这两种问题都是有代价的。皇家苏格兰银行(RBOS)表示,过去3个月间,资本外逃和央行干预使亚洲消耗了420亿美元的外汇储备(日本和manbetx3.0 除外)。据估计,过去两个月内屡次入市支撑韩元的韩国政府,在现货与远期外汇市场上投入了400亿美元。考虑到韩国2400亿美元的外汇储备规模,这个数字或许不算巨大,但美元储备的下降,加剧了人们对韩国1750亿美元短期债务的担忧。理性地讲,这些担忧或许有些过虑——其中相当大一部分外债是在岸外资银行的业务,也得到了对冲——但理性行为早已被人们抛在脑后。

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