The coming slowdown in China trade
LEX专栏:manbetx3.0 出口还有多少“后劲”?


manbetx3.0 贸易顺差在10月份再创纪录,11月份预期将仅出现略微减速。但在manbetx app苹果 需求收缩之际,这种增长水平是不可持续的。

For one, some of that growth represents export orders taken a few months ago and only now being shipped. Second, adjust the figures so that they strip out the currency effects of China's appreciating renminbi, and growth looks less gung-ho. Third, rising exports do not necessarily mean Chinese factories are still whirring faster and faster; Chinese manufacturers may be running down inventories instead. Last month's 8.2 per cent increase in industrial production supports this notion as it is half the level from the start of the year. Finally, Asian data is indicative of a Chinese slowdown, since around half of China's exports relate to processing goods made around Asia, and then shipping the finished products onwards. Exports from Malaysia, which sends electronic and other parts to China for assembly, fell 7 per cent in October compared to last year, while Taiwanese exports plummeted by 38 per cent in November. If such countries are exporting less to China, it in turn will have fewer finished goods to export to the rest of the world.

首先,上述增长有一部分反映的是数月前接到的出口订单,只是现在才发货。其次,若对贸易数据进行调整,剔除人民币升值的影响,那么增长数据就显得不那么“牛”了。第三,出口增长不一定意味着manbetx3.0 工厂仍在越来越快地运转;manbetx3.0 制造商可能在减少库存。上月工业产值8.2%的增幅支持这种假设,因为它只有年初水平的一半。最后,亚洲数据反映出manbetx3.0 manbetx20客户端下载 已经减速,因为大约一半的manbetx3.0 出口涉及加工在亚洲各地制造的商品,然后将成品发运到其它地方。马来西亚出口大量电子和其它部件到manbetx3.0 组装,该国出口在10月份同比下降7%,而台湾11月份出口猛跌38%。如果这些manbetx20客户端下载 体减少了对manbetx3.0 的出口,那么manbetx3.0 就没有那么多成品出口到世界其它地方。

您已阅读64%(1346字),剩余36%(747字)包含更多重要信息,订阅以继续探索完整内容,并享受更多专属服务。
版权声明:本文版权归manbetx20客户端下载 所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×