For this year, people want to know whether China will grow at 8 per cent, the magic number deemed necessary to ensure social stability. That is the wrong question. China will grow at 8 per cent if its statisticians say so. Even if the pain of lower growth is felt on the ground, one isolated year of slowdown is unlikely to spark the popular rebellion some imagine. China's population still believes its government can deliver strong growth in the long run. Only if there were a number of years of sharply lower growth are there likely to be more than isolated disturbances.
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