The probability of a default is low but clearly rising. The decision by Standard & Poor's, the ratings agency, to downgrade Greek sovereign debt and to put Spanish and Irish debt on watch seriously rattled investors last week, for good reason. If the financial crisis has taught us one thing, it is to take perceived tail-risks more seriously.
违约的可能性很低，但这种可能性显然在增大。上周，标准普尔(Standard & Poor)作出决定，降低了希腊主权债务的信用评级，并将西班牙和爱尔兰国债评级列入负面观察名单，令投资者一片慌乱。要说我们从金融危机中吸取了什么教训的话，那就是更慎重地对待察觉到的尾部风险。
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