VARIABLE VULNERABILITY

But the global economic crisis has spoilt the party. Instead of building on the achievements of the past two decades, the region's leaders are feeling the economic foundations shaking under their feet.

All of Europe is heading towards its worst economic crisis since the 1930s. But compared with the wealthy west, central and east European nations are in a weaker position to respond. The dangers are so great that European Union leaders meeting in Berlin last Sunday agreed to back a doubling of International Monetary Fund resources to $500bn (£348bn, €391bn) to support the CEE countries in what Angela Merkel, German chancellor, called an “extraordinary international crisis”.

At risk is not only the economic development of vulnerable countries but even their political stability. Nobody expects a repeat of 1930s evils. But mounting anger over recession, unemployment and debt could fuel populism with unpredictable consequences. As in western Europe, there could be social and ethnic tensions. Reformist governments, multinational companies and banks could all become the targets of public protest when livelihoods are threatened. “The economic crisis will impact . . . eastern Europe more than western Europe because the political and economic systems in eastern Europe are more vulnerable,” says Carl Bildt, Sweden's foreign minister.

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