Korea's debt
Lex专栏:韩国manbetx20客户端下载 尚未脱险


在韩国上周公布去年第四季度偿还450亿美元外债后,韩元和韩国股市应声下跌。投资者这样做或许是有理由的:韩国尚未脱离险境。

Yet, investors may have a point. Short-term external debts on a remaining maturity basis, which includes the current portion of long-term debt, stood at $194bn at the end of 2008. That compares with $200bn of foreign exchange reserves, giving Korea one of Asia's skimpiest coverage ratios. Arguably the ratio is lower still if less liquid instruments are taken out of the equation. Leaving in asset-backed securities – supposedly mainly mortgage-backed securities issued by government-sponsored agencies – but excluding corporate bonds gives liquid reserves of about $170bn. On top of that, Korea can call on $13bn remaining from a $30bn US swap line and a further $20bn agreed with the Bank of Japan. (Another swap line, worth about $26bn and agreed with China, is essentially in local currency; the two sides are still discussing how this will be used and there are no guarantees on conversion into US dollars). The swap lines, in effect, bring coverage back up to just over one times.

不过,投资者或许是有理由的。2008年底,韩国按剩余期限计算的短期外债(包括长期债务的当期部分)总额为1940亿美元,而外汇储备为2000亿美元,使其成为亚洲manbetx20客户端下载 体中偿债能力比最差的一个。如果不计入流动性较差的工具,这个比率可能还会更低。如果计入资产支持证券——估计主要是政府支持的机构发行的抵押贷款支持证券——但不包括公司债券,那么韩国的流动性储备约为1700亿美元。此外,韩国还可以动用与美国达成的300亿美元外汇掉期协议中剩余的130亿美元额度,以及与日本央行达成的200亿美元外汇掉期额度。(另一项与manbetx3.0 签署的互换协议额度约为260亿美元,但其币种以本币为主;而且双方仍在讨论如何使用这一额度,而且不保证会转换成美元。)实际上,外汇掉期协议只是将韩国的外债偿付能力提高至略多于1倍而已。

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