Can we afford this crisis? Will governments destroy their solvency, as they use their balance sheets to rescue over-indebted private sectors?
The debate, as it has so often been, is between the US and Germany. Thus, in a speech last week, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, noted that, “The IMF has called for countries to put in place fiscal stimulus of 2 per cent of aggregate GDP each year by 2009-10. This is a reasonable benchmark to guide each of our individual efforts. We think the G20 should ask the IMF to report on countries' stimulus efforts scaled against the relative shortfall in growth rates.” Needless to say, no such firm pledge was forthcoming, with Germany particularly resistant.
Nevertheless, a great deal of fiscal stimulus has occurred. This is what readers of recent research on the aftermath of financial crises by Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard would expect. These authors concluded from studying 13 big financial crises that the average rise in real public debt in the three years following a banking crisis was 86 per cent. In some of these cases, the increase was more than 150 per cent*.