Thank heavens for the Swiss. While the rest of the world closed its wallet and hunkered down, Switzerland actually bought more goods from Japan in February than it did last year. Pity no one else did the same.
Japanese exports, already down 46 per cent in January from the year before, halved in February. That marks the steepest decline since 1957. Fewer cars and TVs are going to the US, where exports slumped 58 per cent. Fewer components are also going to Asia for assembly, en route to the developed world. Exports of computer parts halved.
A few optimists see green shoots beyond Switzerland. In some cases, for example, exports are falling more rapidly than end-demand. Macquarie points out that the volume of Japanese vehicle shipments fell 62 per cent during the first two months of the year, faster than the 25 per cent slump in global car sales. The difference theoretically comes out of inventories, so eroding stockpiles and setting the stage for a more rapid recovery when demand eventually picks up. Unhelpfully, Japanese inventory data lag trade numbers. But based on January figures, this thesis looks bold. Car stockpiles actually expanded while the ratio of inventories to shipments also rose.