Russia came through last autumn's liquidity squeeze better than expected. No large bank failed and the rouble's slow-motion devaluation, though costly for reserves, prevented bank runs that would have evoked memories of its 1998 default. Now for the second wave. With the economy contracting, real incomes falling and joblessness spiralling, non-performing loans are set to mushroom. Could the ghosts of 1998 still stir?
俄罗斯在去年秋季流动性紧缩期间的表现优于预期。没有大型银行倒闭,卢布的缓慢贬值虽然给外汇储备带来了惨重损失,却预防了本来会唤起1998年债务违约记忆的银行挤兑现象。现在迎来了第二波危机。随着manbetx20客户端下载 收缩、实际收入下降和失业率攀升,不良贷款必然急剧增加。1998年的幽灵还会蠢蠢欲动吗?
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