A sober warning from someone who knows something about tips. Ronald Arculli, chairman of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, and former head of the Hong Kong Jockey Club, told Bloomberg he is not a buyer of stocks traded in the territory. Investors seem to disagree. The benchmark Hang Seng Index is up by a half from its March low, and Hong Kong commands the biggest overweight position in Asian fund managers' portfolios.
Part of this is due to emerging markets exuberance and a charge back into riskier assets. Flows into Asian ex-Japan funds collapsed last year but have since risen 6 per cent, according to EPFR Global, which tracks fund flows. Hong Kong's role as international investors' conduit into China, where Beijing is spending its way to a projected 8 per cent rise in economic output, burnishes its appeal. Chinese-related companies account for just over half the Hong Kong stock market but currently two-thirds of its turnover.
In relative terms, the market does not look overvalued either, on 15 times this year's estimated earnings. That rating is in line with the US, about a quarter cheaper than China and one-third the level of Japan. The usual clues that the market has topped out – share placements by the territory's property developers – are also not yet in evidence.