A confession: I have been too complacent about technological fixes for the twin problems of climate change and finite oil and gas reserves. Without looking very closely at the numbers, I figured that if politicians would finally get their act together, and if we avoided some of the more unlucky possibilities (such as the release of methane ice from the oceans), cheap, clean energy would be within our grasp, given suitable research incentives and some technological brilliance.
迄今我仍未放弃这种技术幻想,但阅读了剑桥大学物理学家戴维•麦凯(David J.C. MacKay)的一本非凡之作(你可以从www.withouthotair.com下载该书)之后,我对依靠技术摆脱困境的可能性大为悲观。在《可再生能源——拒绝空话》(我要忏悔:对于借助技术手段解决气候变化和石油天然气资源有限这个双重难题, 我一直过于自满。在没有仔细研究数字的情况下,我以为如果政客们最终能采取一致行动,如果我们能够避开一些更加不幸的可能性(比如海洋冰层甲烷气的释放),再加上适当的研究激励手段和一些技术才能,廉价的清洁能源就将唾手可得。