On Wednesday last week, yields on 10-year US Treasuries – generally seen as the benchmark for long-term interest rates – rose above 3.73 per cent. Once upon a time that would have been considered rather low. But the financial crisis has changed all that: at the end of last year, the yield on the 10-year fell to 2.06 per cent. In other words, long-term rates have risen by 167 basis points in the space of five months. In relative terms, that represents an 81 per cent jump.
Most commentators were unnerved by this development, coinciding as it did with warnings about the fiscal health of the US. For me, however, it was good news. For it settled a rather public argument between me and the Princeton economist Paul Krugman.
上周三，10年期美国国债收益率——通常被视为长期利率的基准——升至3.73%以上。放在过去，这会被认为是很低的水平，但金融危机改变了一切：去年年底，10年期美国国债收益率降至2.06%。换言之，长期利率在5个月内上升了167个基点。比较而言，升幅达到了81%。