We have heard the emerging markets decoupling story before. But this time there is a difference – the markets really seem to believe it.
The “decoupling” story held that China, and some other big emerging markets, could grow even if the developed world went into recession. This underpinned the 2002-07 emerging market rally.
But, in reality, markets were behaving as though emerging markets were tightly “coupled” – their performance relative to the developed world was strongest when developed stocks did well, and weakest when they did worst.
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