Beijing may be prepared to do whatever is required to quell the riots in Xinjiang province but, on a national scale, also whatever it takes to manufacture an 8 per cent economic growth rate. If that means hosing the economy with more credit than it knows what to do with, so be it. Coincidence or not, the Tiananmen uprising took place in a year when economic growth more than halved.
China's banking regulator, however, is increasingly fretful, noting on Tuesday that rampant credit growth “poses risks” to the financial system. The warning comes after lenders advanced Rmb5,840bn ($855bn) of new loans in the first five months, almost triple the amount a year earlier. Goldman Sachs expects a blockbuster June – as much as $230bn – as banks pump up their quarterly loan numbers, just as they did in March (to a record $280bn).
An unknowable amount of this cash has ended up on the blackjack tables of Macao – or that other casino, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, where daily volumes are currently three times the five-year average. But even assuming that most has gone where intended, there are many reasons to worry.