US profits are good, but are they that good?
Over the past two weeks, stocks, as measured by the FTSE-All World index, rose 12 per cent, virtually without interruption. This was one of the best and most sustained rallies of the decade. The catalyst, plainly, came from corporate America.
The earnings released last week for the second quarter were much better than expected last Monday morning. Then, the consensus estimate, according to Thomson Reuters, was that S&P 500 earnings would fall 35.1 per cent year on year. By the end of the week, this had improved to a decline of 31 per cent. The positive surprise easily explains the jump in share prices.
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