观点效率

THE PRICE IS NOT ALWAYS RIGHT AND MARKETS CAN BE WRONG
市场也可能错


芝加哥大学教授塞勒:效率市场假说由两部分组成:“价格总是正确的”和“没有免费的午餐”。午餐固然不会免费,但价格是有可能出错的,否则何来泡沫?

I recently had the pleasure of reading Justin Fox's new book The Myth of the Rational Market. It offers an engaging history of the research that has come to be called the “efficient market hypothesis”. It is similar in style to the classic by the late Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods. All the quotes in this column are taken from it. The book was mostly written before the financial crisis. However, it is natural to ask if the experiences over the last year should change our view of the EMH.

最近我有幸拜读了贾斯汀•福克斯(Justin Fox)的新书《理性市场的神话》(The Myth of the Rational Market)。该书记叙了形成“效率市场假说”的研究过程,一段引人入胜的历史。从文体上讲,本书与已故的彼得•伯恩斯坦(Peter Bernstein)的经典之作《与天为敌》(Against the Gods)相仿。本文引语全部出自其中。本书基本上是在金融危机爆发前写成的。不过,读者自然会问,过去一年的经历是否会改变我们对效率市场假说的看法?

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