Pop the champagne! There is a good chance that the US recession ended in June, says Capital Economics. Fully 27 of the 28 leading indicators tracked by the research outfit are above trough levels, with hours worked and exports the latest to improve. True, the signposts pointing most prominently to recovery – the ISM survey of sentiment and the stock market – are confidence based, suggesting a circularity to the sense of optimism. But it seems safe to assume that the worst has passed. Drink your bubbly quickly though, because contemplating the nature of the recovery may spoil the mood.
开香槟庆贺吧！伦敦资本manbetx20客户端下载 (Capital Economics)称，美国manbetx20客户端下载 衰退很有可能在6月份已经止步。在该研究机构追踪的28个领先指标中，足足有27个走出了谷底，其中工作时间和出口是两个新近转好的指标。诚然，最明显指向复苏的指标——美国供应管理学会(ISM)对人气和股市的调查——是以信心为基础的，表明乐观情绪出现回升。但最糟糕情况已经过去的猜想似乎是安全的。不过，还是赶快喝掉手中的香槟吧，因为思考复苏的本质可能会破坏情绪。