China, like much of the world, is breathing a sigh of relief that economic disaster has been averted. Better-than- expected macro-economic data are driving growing optimism. But government officials and businessmen should not delude themselves: going back to pre-crisis ways would be a serious mistake.
From a macro point of view, we still have an unbalanced global economy. The US consumes too much and saves too little. China's problem is the opposite. Despite years of encouragement from government to spend more, many Chinese consumers continue to be more comfortable saving than spending. As Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, said just last month at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China's economic recovery “is not yet steady, solid and balanced”.
All of us applaud China's far-reaching stimulus programme. But many in China cling to the belief that the export-led model that has worked so well for 30 years will remain largely untouched after the crisis. The US consumer, after all, has always come back, most recently after the dotcom bubble burst and the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001. But the longer global imbalances persist, the more painful the reckoning. Both China and the US must do more.