Almost two years ago, I wrote a column hailing “the age of the small state”. I pointed out that the number of independent nations had grown sharply over the past 40 years and that small countries topped many of the international league tables, on everything from gross domestic product-per-capita to peacefulness and “human development”.
But that was then. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the economic and political tide has turned against small nations. Look around Europe and it is the smalls that have fared worst – Iceland, Ireland, the three Baltic states. Iceland has not only suffered a catastrophic economic and banking collapse. It is also being bullied by Britain and the Netherlands into paying back billions lost by their citizens when Icelandic banks collapsed. Membership of the European Union has provided the Irish and the Balts with some protection from pressure by larger nations, but it cannot solve all problems. Latvia has had to go to the International Monetary Fund for a loan. Lithuania and Ireland may be forced to tread the same route.
So what has changed? Harold James, a historian at Princeton University, points out in a new book, The Creation and Destruction of Value: “In the heyday of modern globalisation in the 1990s, it looked as if small open states would be the winners: New Zealand, Chile, Ireland, the Baltic Republics, Slovakia and Slovenia.” These countries were able to take advantage of the removal of barriers to international trade and investment – and of a stable international order, guaranteed by the US.