The truth is sometimes simple, however elaborate the detail. The main feature of the world economy over the past few years has been the growing savings surplus of China and other Asian countries. Until recently it was offset by consumer borrowing in the west, especially in the US and the UK. This had to come to an end because of unsustainable consumer debt ratios. There is no early prospect of this thrift being balanced either by an investment boom in the west or by investment in non-Chinese developing economies. Nor is China going to reduce its savings surplus on the scale required either directly or by appreciating the renminbi in response to international pleading. The hole in the world economy can only be filled by deficit spending by the stronger western governments. If this is inhibited by fiscal tightening, recovery will be strangled.
事实的真相有时很简单，无论其细节是多么的复杂。过去几年，世界manbetx20客户端下载 的主要特征就是manbetx3.0 和其它亚洲国家日益扩大的储蓄盈余。以前，西方国家（尤其是美国和英国）的消费者借款抵消了这一盈余。但这种局面已告终结，因为西方消费者的债务比率已升至不可持续的水平。短期内，西方国家的投资热潮或manbetx3.0 以外发展中manbetx20客户端下载 体的投资，都不太可能抵消西方消费者量入为出的影响。甚至连manbetx3.0 也不会将其储蓄盈余的规模削减至应有水平，无论是通过直接方式，还是通过响应国际呼吁、允许人民币升值。世界manbetx20客户端下载 的缺口只能由较强大西方国家政府的赤字支出来填补。如果财政紧缩抑制了这种支出，那么复苏就将被扼杀。