黄金

GOLD BUG
短线观点:黄金基金看高一线


自2004年推出以来,交易所交易黄金基金的资产规模已超过400亿美元,且年年盈利。富人对此类基金的渴求,或将进一步提振金价。

Though it is over 150 years old, Edgar Allan Poe's The Gold Bug may make a fun gift this season. With the gold price hitting near-daily records, the story about the hunt for a buried treasure after a bite from a gold-coloured bug has topical appeal, and is said to be one of the first uses of the description for gold lovers. Other gold-themed gifts might include gold coins or stakes in gold funds, which are surging in popularity.

Five years ago, gold funds were also causing ripples of excitement. Investors were, for the first time, able to buy gold via an instrument traded on the stock exchange, avoiding the complications of futures or of deciphering mining company strategies. Offered by the World Gold Council and State Street Securities, the gold exchange-traded fund launched in 2004 has proved to be a winner. Now with assets of more than $40bn, it has made money every year and, for those investors who took stakes at the beginning, it has made them over 150 per cent.

Gold's lustre is attracting more followers now. There are still plenty of gold bugs who believe it will always outshine, especially as the value of paper currencies threatens to plunge and inflation looms. Other investors are not driven by doomsday scenarios but see value in gold relative to other assets, from the supply of money to crude oil and equities. Others merely buy into diversification arguments.

One recent catalyst pushing gold higher was buying by central banks, such as India's $6.7bn purchase earlier this month. But, as Ticonderoga analysts point out, State Street's gold ETF is among the biggest holders of gold in the world. Indeed, ETFs backed by physical gold are now buying the equivalent of over 20 per cent of new gold production, nearly double last year's levels. Wealthy individuals have long supported luxury goods. Their thirst for gold funds might just give a further boost to this precious metal too.


 

虽然埃德加•艾伦•坡(Edgar Allan Poe)的《金甲虫》(The Gold Bug)已问世150多年,但把它作为今年的圣诞礼物,或许还是很有意思的。鉴于金价几乎天天创新高,这个有关被一只金色甲虫咬了一口、于是开始寻找宝藏的故事,刚好切合时下的热门话题。据说,这个故事是最早用“金甲虫”来形容黄金爱好者的出处之一。其它以黄金为主题的礼物,可能还有金币或黄金基金的份额,后者的人气正急剧蹿升。

5年前,黄金基金也掀起了一股热潮。当时,人们第一次可以通过一种在证交所交易的工具来购买黄金,避免了进行期货交易或破解矿业公司计谋的麻烦。由世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)和道富证券(State Street Securitie)提供的交易所黄金基金于2004年推出,结果大获成功。目前,其资产规模已超过400亿美元,且年年盈利。而对于那些一开始就买入的投资者,回报率已超过了150%。

如今,黄金的光泽正吸引着更多的追随者。仍有许多“金甲虫”相信,黄金总能大放异彩,尤其是在纸币或将贬值、通胀风险迫近的情况下。其他人之所以投资黄金,倒不是因为担心世界末日,而是看到了黄金相对于其它资产——从货币供应到原油和证券—— 的价值所在。还有人则仅仅是出于投资多元化的考虑。

近来推动金价走高的一个催化剂,是各国央行的购买行为,比如印度就于本月早些时候买入了67亿美元黄金。不过,正如Ticonderoga分析师指出的那样,道富的交易所交易黄金基金是manbetx app苹果 最大的黄金持有机构之一。事实上,有实物黄金支持的交易所交易基金目前的买入量,已超过黄金新增产量的20%,较去年的水平翻了近一倍。富人向来青睐奢侈品,而他们对于黄金基金的趋之若鹜,或许还将进一步推高金价。

译者/章晴

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