Although China has tended to be the key focus among the Brics, Brazil has also been important to global investors recently – and it is worth noting recent signs of fatigue there, says Neil Mellor at Bank of New York Mellon.
He points out that Brazil was the biggest gainer in the MSCI Emerging Markets index in 2009. The Bovespa index soared 100 per cent from mid-March to year-end. “But 2010 has been a different story, with the Bovespa down 7.5 per cent year-to-date and hovering near its 100-day moving average,” he says. “The last time the index succumbed to this technical level, it began a 60 per cent retracement through the second half of 2008.”
Mr Mellor says BNY Mellon flow data show four successive daily net outflows of equity capital from the Brazilian market – a fairly rare occurrence in the past 12 months. Moreover, this follows two months in which net inflows into the country have consistently flattened.