Over the next few days, the Financial Times will be holding a series of "Great Debates" in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, asking whether China will be a superpower in 2020.
Viewed from New York, it seems a strange question. The investors in what is still the world's biggest financial centre are acting on the assumption that China is already a superpower, if not a hyperpower. They have been doing so for some time. And perceptions are important: if people believe you are a superpower, they will let you behave like one.
The perception that China is a superpower is now deeply ingrained in US popular culture. Late-night comedy shows recycle jokes about the amount of money the US has borrowed from China. Conspiracy theories about the Chinese currency, which has been kept fixed against the dollar for almost two years now, and about Chinese foreign reserves are omnipresent. If China wanted, it could sell its Treasury bonds and crash the US economy, the theorists say - neglecting to mention that such actions would wreak deep damage on the Chinese economy as well.