As the UN gears up for yet another argument over sanctions on Iran, the position of China is increasingly critical. The votes of Russia, Turkey and Brazil will all matter a lot when the UN Security Council debates the issue. But if the Chinese decide to veto a new sanctions package, it will be dead. If they go along with tougher action to rein in the Iranian nuclear programme, then new measures will almost certainly get through. Everybody from American diplomats to Israeli generals have trooped to Beijing to try to make the case for action.
The Chinese may well agree to new measures. But these are likely to fall far short of the “crippling” sanctions that Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, once called for. As a result, even new UN measures are unlikely to achieve their goal. Iran will edge ever closer to the bomb, and the Middle East will slide ever closer to a new war or to a destabilising and dangerous new arms race.
The problem is that China seems inclined to treat the Iranian issue as simply one card in a complicated diplomatic poker game with the US, that covers everything from climate change to currency. If the Chinese give a little on Iran, it will be largely to take the pressure off on other areas – rather than because China really accepts that the Iranian programme is a genuine and urgent threat to international security.