The recent improvement in US-Sino relations has been an important step towards an adjustment to the renminbi exchange rate – but China's power brokers must decide if the time is right for the country to risk its export competitiveness, says Neil Mellor, strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
“China's commerce ministry, which has openly resisted any near-term shift, may now have the ear of senior officials,” he says. “The fact is that China's exports are an integral component of a growth strategy to which renminbi stability has been an important contributor.”
Mr Mellor notes growing doubts in the markets that an adjustment is on the cards, as renminbi forwards across the curve have unwound all their year-to-date gains since the start of this month.