Six months ago, it looked as though Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel would stay in power forever. From a macroeconomic perspective this was profoundly depressing because the euro crisis is, to a large part, a crisis of weak leadership. Since then, the two leaders have suffered drops in their popularity – albeit for different reasons.
Ms Merkel is increasingly seen as a scheming tactician, focusing on her short-term gain, rather than her country's long-term interests. Mr Sarkozy's hyperactivity has made him look like a buffoon. Yet, despite those differences – and the fact that the two of them are evidently not close to each other – there is a common strand underlying their loss of popularity. They both lack a convincing strategy of how to get through this crisis. Elections are still two years away in France, and more than three in Germany – in other words too early for any forecasts. But the fall in the popularity of both leaders is not a fluke. I expect their problems to persist.
Mr Sarkozy is now immersed in a party funding scandal. It is hard to judge how this will end, but it looks as if it will drag on and on. Even if it does not bring him down – and that may happen – he might still choke in the mud of the Bettencourt-Woerth affair – so named after the heiress of the L'Oréal empire, and Mr Sarkozy's labour minister.