In spite of the commitments made at Tuesday's conference on the future of Afghanistan in Kabul, the current US counter-insurgency strategy (Coin) is likely to fail. The Taliban cannot be sufficiently weakened in Pashtun Afghanistan to coerce it to the negotiating table. America cannot win over sufficient numbers of the Afghan Pashtun on whom Coin depends. President Hamid Karzai's deeply corrupt government shows no signs of improvement. The Afghanistan army cannot stand up to the Taliban for many years, if ever. Pakistan's military continues to support its Afghan Taliban proxies. And the long-term Coin strategy and the far shorter US political timeline are incompatible.
尽管各方上周二在喀布尔召开的有关阿富汗未来的会议上做出承诺，但当前美国的反叛乱战略仍然很可能失败。盟军在阿富汗普什图地区无法有效削弱塔利班势力，迫使其坐到谈判桌前。美国争取不到反叛乱战略所依赖的足够数量的普什图人。哈米德•卡尔扎伊(Hamid Karzai)总统的极其腐败的政府毫无改进迹象。阿富汗军队在未来多年将一直不是塔利班的对手，也许永远都会如此。巴基斯坦军方继续支持其阿富汗塔利班代理人。此外，长期的反叛乱战略和短得多的美国政治时间表不能相容。