Behind every conversation about how dangerous the world will turn out to be resides a simple question. To what degree will the big powers, old and new, locate their national interests in a shared understanding of collective security? We don’t know the answer but the present direction of travel is not at all encouraging.
It is possible to imagine all manner of models for a new international system. Some look to the power balancing of the late 19th century; others to the great power concert that emerged from the Congress of Vienna. In Asia, the talk is of “bandwagons” as smaller powers seek security in the slipstream of larger ones; and of “hedging” – alliances written as insurance policies against double-dealing.
One thing seems clear enough. The clean, clinical lines of cold war bipolarity have given way to something a lot messier. Whatever the geometry and complexity of any new arrangements, stability will rest on the weights they afford to competition and co-operation.