China’s average annual rate of economic growth over the next two decades will fall to little more than half the current level as its ability to sustain huge investment declines, according to the Asian Development Bank.
Such a slowdown would have a dramatic effect on China’s place in the world, significantly delaying the moment at which its economy surpasses that of the US as the world’s largest, having overtaken Japan as the second largest earlier this year.
Jim O’Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, forecast in 2009 that China could overtake the US by 2027. However, that prediction relied on China achieving growth of “close to 10 per cent for many years”.
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