Oil prices will rise modestly towards $85 a barrel next year despite market expectations that they will return to above $100 a barrel, the world’s largest oil trading house has forecast.
Ian Taylor, chief executive of Switzerland-based Vitol, said a price band between $70 and $85 a barrel was “widely viewed as meeting producers’ needs while being simultaneously ‘acceptable’ to consumers”.
“We see prices progressing to the higher end of this range over 2011,” he writes in today’s Financial Times. But he warned that surpluses in production and refining capacity will keep prices “in a relatively narrow band” next year. “The concept of a price ceiling exists today in a way that it simply didn’t when prices rose to $150 in the middle of 2008.”
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