Strong growth in emerging market economies over the next few years will not be enough to rescue the rest of the world, says Mark Williams, senior economist at Capital Economics.
He says that for EM nations to pull the developed world out of its malaise, there will have to be significant growth in import demand from the likes of China and the oil producers. “Put another way, the emerging world’s current account surplus needs to fall,” he says. “In the near term, at least, this looks unlikely.”
Mr Williams says that in China, imbalances are rebounding and powerful vested interests are likely to frustrate efforts at rapid reform. He adds that the prospects for rebalancing elsewhere in Asia are better, but that it will still be a slow process – and unless commodity prices drop sharply, oil producers’ surpluses look here to stay.