Cry wolf often enough and, as every preschooler learns, you will be ignored when the fanged canine actually turns up. The much-forecast break-up of the euro seems to be having much this effect on the currency markets.
Earlier this year, traders of the euro became hyper-sensitised to the problems of Greece. In April-May, and again in August, soaring Greek bond yields relative to German Bund yields closely matched the plunging euro.
Come the crisis in Ireland, and the euro did little more than shrug. True, it has fallen back from its $1.42 recent peak, reached in large part because of the second round of US quantitative easing. But the move to the current $1.35 was just a fraction of the 20-25 cent moves earlier in the year.
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