Economists are learning from the financial crisis, but investors should not relax. The gaps in the profession’s knowledge were well explained in the International Monetary Fund’s harsh assessment of its own intellectual shortcomings before 2007. The list is daunting: excessive trust in both financial markets and the new techniques of financial risk-spreading, an inadequate understanding of how finance influences the real economy, and an over-reliance on models “as the only valid tool to analyse economic circumstances that are too complex for modelling”.
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