No one could predict that the death of a Tunisian vegetable vendor would spark revolts across the Middle East, threatening regimes from Libya to Iran. But while these shockwaves might seem chaotic, they are in fact only the latest example of a powerful political phenomenon: the J-curve, or the dip in stability as countries move from closed to open societies. The concept also explains why many of the region’s governments are now caught in what may prove to be an inescapable trap.
没人能料到，突尼斯一名菜贩的死亡，会掀起整个中东地区的反叛浪潮，从利比亚到伊朗的各个政权都受到威胁。不过，这些浪潮尽管看上去也许杂乱无章，它们实际上只是一种普遍政治现象的最新例证：J曲线——即随着一个国家从封闭转向开放，它的稳定度会先下降再上升。这一概念还解释了，为何中东地区的许多政府现在都陷入了一种可能最终不可避免的困境。
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