Almost a year after I moved to Hong Kong to run a China investment fund, I am struck by a shift in the mood music. It is as if, unable to hold more than one thought in their minds at a time, investors have displaced their enthusiasm for the Chinese growth story with concerns about inflation, currency tensions and political uncertainty.
The rotation from emerging to developed markets has been exacerbated and may be prolonged, by the disturbances in north Africa and the Middle East. The impact of a higher oil price might be greater in the more energy-intensive economies of the emerging world than in the developed markets, which have become more energy efficient over the years.
The worries of the market are never wholly without foundation and it is a foolish investor who dismisses them. But, having reappraised my bullishness on markets in general and China in particular, I am not yet ready to abandon my optimism.