Markets are bad at valuing low-probability extreme events. Put differently, investors often respond to a radical increase in uncertainty with panic. It is hard to stand still when the Middle East is in turmoil or when there is the risk of a Japanese nuclear catastrophe, let alone both simultaneously. Usually it is clever to get well in front of a stampede. But mass movement of money is a dangerous business.
市场在评估低概率极端事件方面，表现向来不佳。换言之，对于不确定性的骤增，投资者往往做出恐慌的反应。当中东陷入动荡、或日本有可能发生核灾难之际，人们很难保持平静，更遑论两种情况同时出现。通常，在别人四散逃离时保持镇定是明智之举。但大量挪动资金则是一件危险的事情。
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