As of this week, one troy ounce of gold will cost you more than $1,500. Meanwhile, the US dollar, on a trade-weighted basis, is back to a post-crisis low. These facts are not coincidental, and reflect
well-embedded trading trends that could persist for a while longer. They do not, however, cohere with events in the real economy.
Gold’s ascent has been far greater in dollar terms than when measured in other currencies. Worries about US inflation are part of this, as are low interest rates. The real interest rate on cash is the opportunity cost of holding gold – so, with rates historically low, there is less reason not to hold gold.
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