Even as the ink is drying on Portugal’s European Union and International Monetary Fund bail-out agreement, evidence is mounting that last year’s bail-outs of Greece and Ireland have failed. Far from improving their access to the financial markets, Greece and Ireland face record borrowing costs. Notwithstanding the slightly less draconian terms of Portugal’s agreement, it will surely suffer a similar fate. The EU will try to get away with “soft” restructurings, involving a combination of longer maturities and lower interest rates. But this will not work and by 2013 there will be no viable alternative to “hard” restructurings (default), comprising debt write-downs of 50 per cent or more. Unfortunately, in the case of Greece and Portugal at least, even this will not guarantee continued membership of the euro.
在欧盟(EU)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)与葡萄牙达成的纾困协议墨迹未干之时，有越来越多迹象显示，它们去年对希腊和爱尔兰的纾困已经失败。这两个国家非但未能增强从金融市场融资的能力，反而面临创纪录水平的借债成本。尽管葡萄牙纾困协议条款的严苛程度略低一些，但该国最终必然遭遇同样的命运。欧盟将设法通过“软”重组来走出困境，包括采取延长债务期限与降低利息双管齐下的办法。但这不会管用。到2013年时，除了“硬”重组（即违约，包括将债务减记一半甚至更多），别无其它可行的办法。不幸的是，至少就希腊和葡萄牙而言，即便如此也无法保证它们能继续留在欧元区内。