The People’s Bank of China appears to have signalled its intent to guide the currency higher by setting its daily reference rate at a record high on Monday for the third straight time. We’re not talking about massive gains – the renminbi was up a mere 0.06 percent on the day – but the symbolism of the successive records was powerful given that China’s default mode is unremitting gradualism.
The driving force is obvious enough: inflation remains too high for comfort. A stronger renminbi both blunts imported price pressures and reduces the need for the central bank to print yet more money to hold down the exchange rate. With inflation expected to climb higher in May and June, a policy of faster appreciation will find more support than normal in Beijing.
“It’s certain that the central bank wants to start a new leg of appreciation,” a Chinese bank dealer told Reuters.