The summer slowdown is now all but official. Manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices on Wednesday plunged worldwide, with the US at 53.5, its lowest since September 2009.
The bond market has latched on to a series of bad economic reports over the past two months, suggesting growth was weakening. The PMI numbers were the last straw, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield below 3 per cent for the first time since December. It stands where it was last June, as do bond market-based forecasts of future US inflation, which have come down sharply.
By contrast, equity investors were shocked – shocked – to hear that a slowdown might be under way. Shares fell sharply in response but, far from pricing in a gloomy summer, global share prices are down only 3.3 per cent from their recent peak; the S&P 500 is down just 2.4 per cent.