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China’s non-bank credit bubble

At the end of April, Baotou-based Chinese billionaire Jin Libin set himself on fire to escape his creditors. His method of dealing with the situation was disturbing enough, but the structure of his debt was equally shocking. Investigators found that his billion renminbi business owed banks only 150 million RMB, but owed individual creditors and informal banks Rmb1.23bn.

In other words, he owed private creditors and informal banks over eight times what he owed the banks. Although extreme, Jin’s debt situation suggests a highly risky debt bubble that seems to be growing without much control outside of the banking system.

Since late last year, the PBOC has tightened monetary policy via RRR and rate hikes, as well as administrative guidance on bank lending. This prompted banks to channel credit to large customers at the expense of household borrowers and small corporate borrowers.

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