The US-backed accords that brought a halt to half a century of intermittent civil war between north and south Sudan envisaged separation as a last resort. Six years later it has come to that: the south becomes independent on Saturday. No doubt it will be a day of celebration for southern Sudanese, who voted overwhelmingly to turn their back on their northern oppressors. But the break-up of the country provides no guarantee that the future on either side of the border will be better. Rather, there is every possibility that from the failed state that spawned Africa’s longest civil war will be born two failed states, each containing the seeds of future conflicts.
苏丹北部和南部地区之间曾发生长达半个世纪、时断时续的内战。按照美国支持下旨在结束内战的协议，最后出路将是双方相互分离。六年后，这种设想成为了现实：南苏丹将在本周六宣告独立。无疑，这一天对南苏丹人民来说将是个欢庆的日子，他们在公民投票中以绝对多数支持独立，与北方的压迫者们分道扬镳。但是，苏丹的解体并不能保证任何一方的未来将会更美好。相反，有相当大的可能性出现以下情况：这个曾经爆发非洲最长内战的失败国家，将诞生两个失败国家，而两国都带有未来冲突的种子。