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Kipling’s game theory lessons for Greece

The game theorist Martin Shubik invented an unpleasant economists’ party game called the dollar bill auction. The players agree to auction a dollar bill with one cent increments to the bids. As usual, the dollar goes to the highest bidder. The twist is that both the highest bidder and the second-highest bidder must pay.

You might start with a low bid – but offers will quickly rise towards a dollar. Soon the highest bid will be 99 cents with the underbidder at 98 cents. At that point, it pays the underbidder to offer a dollar. He will not now gain from the transaction, but that outcome is better than the loss of 98 cents. And now there is a sting in the tail. There is no reason why the bidding should stop at a dollar. The new underbidder stands to lose 99 cents. But if a bid of $1.01 is successful, he can reduce his loss to a single cent.

The underbidder always comes back. So the auction can continue until the resources of the players are exhausted. The game must end, but never well. There are reports that over $200 has been paid for a dollar in Shubik’s game. That would be a contender for the most valuable dollar bill in existence had not $43m been paid for Andy Warhol’s representation of 200 of them.

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约翰•凯

约翰•凯(John Kay)从1995年开始为英国《金融时报》撰写manbetx20客户端下载 和商业的专栏。他曾经任教于伦敦商学院和牛津大学。目前他在伦敦manbetx20客户端下载 学院担任访问学者。他有着非常辉煌的从商经历,曾经创办和壮大了一家咨询公司,然后将其转售。约翰•凯著述甚丰,其中包括《企业成功的基础》(Foundations of Corporate Success, 1993)、《市场的真相》(The Truth about Markets, 2003)和近期的《金融投资指南》(The Long and the Short of It: finance and investment for normally intelligent people who are not in the industry)。

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