Despite its track record as one of the world’s most boring currencies, the renminbi has a unique ability to generate endless rumours.
The latest talk is that Beijing is on the cusp of a new exchange rate policy, involving noticeably faster appreciation and more market-driven volatility for its tightly managed currency. Those would certainly be welcome changes, but, if history is any guide, the reality is likely to disappoint.
The immediate prompt for the excited speculation has been a burst of appreciation. The renminbi closed at a record high on Tuesday, the fifth straight day in which the People’s Bank of China set its midpoint – the fixing for its daily trading band – at a record high.
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