Economists like to joke that Wall Street has predicted nine out of the last five recessions. Equity investors seem to think they might have done it again. The peak-to-trough drop of 20 per cent in global share prices amounted to a firm forecast in early August that recession was on its way. Since then shares have jumped more than 9 per cent, as doubts grew about the extent of the slowdown.
Thursday’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices sent a mixed message. The eurozone and UK, and China on one of its two measures, were below the crucial 50 mark separating expansion from contraction. The US came in at 50.6, but was still down (although better than feared).
The details were more pessimistic still. Of 17 PMI indices produced by Markit, only Japan, Poland and the Czech Republic saw rising new orders rise. Most are back to levels last seen in 2009. Stocks of unsold goods in the eurozone are rising at the fastest since late 2008, and in Germany at the fastest since the series started 15 years ago.